What is going to be growth drivers in USA

I was talking to one of my very good friend and advisor and discussing about what is going to drive growth in USA. Well.. to begin with will there be any growth or not.. or it will follow UK/Japan style long years of limping growth.

We both agreed that USA still has lot of potential. There are tons of things happening which could drive growth of US economy. Honestly, we all agree that US gets one of the best brains from the world and these best brains in almost all the fields are respected and heard right at the top. So how could these so called best brains let US decline. They definitely should have some thing in mind. Hopefully!!!

Okay.. let us talk about us.. not so great minds but still some thoughts.. What could drive growth.. What ever it may be.. it has to be substantial or Quantum jump from current technologies. One obvious area looks to be Bio-Tech. It is there for long time but yet to culminate in real good growth. Hopefully this could be our short term bet.. What else.. my friend suggested that US still has lot more edge in security (or in another words.. War tech). So that is going to be short/ long term thing which can continue to drive growth in US and helping us become another UK/Japan.

Still I am not really convinced that these things alone can drive substantial growth in future.. We need tons of new Intel/Apple type of companies which can create substantially better products as compared to today and drive growth here in US. Alternate Energy could be another item.. however, it all depends if we can keep oil price more than $80 a barrel or not.. risky bet..

Another very strong idea which I think I have repeated in some of my earlier blog entries is Creativity.. No body can beat US in creativity, Imagination, Sales.. my kids were ask to give demo/presentations in pre school.. I didn't knew what is power point or presentation till final year of my engineering when I had to forcibly prepare presentation for my project work.. However, US is full of energy to deliver creative ideas.. in movies.. Only Hollywood can make Avatar/Titan.. in Sports.. there can only be one Kobe Bryant or Jordan.. or NFL/NBA etc.. Off course there is only one Vegas!! and one real authentic Disneyland in LA... (rest all are fakes/replica).. I guess.. bottom line is.. US should become entertainment center of the universe.. with all these things in your belt.. sell them and sell them hard..

What do you think.. are you comfortable with US future.. or do you have any thoughts on what could be next big thing which will make US prosper again?? or not.. I think US has done it many times and will do it.. We have many other nations to learn what not to do to become UK/Japanese economy!!

Cheers!!!

Wiki leaks

Heard some glimpse of wiki leaks in news. Most of the leaks seems to embarrassing at first. But on second thoughts, it just tells that all these leaders are also very much humans just like us.. though not so brave and honest  many times. or other way to look at this is that these leaders from all parts of world are at least honest and brave in private.

I think, and I mean I think.. that all the leaders and diplomats should take this opportunity and thank to gentleman who is accused of releasing these to public and.. and... should really remove facade between their public and private talks.. this way it will be better for entire world and ultimately for them.. only flip side could be that these leaders/diplomats may not have jobs in another 10--20 years.. only if they all start behaving honestly and bravely in public as well..

I am sure that lot of these leaks will be very embarrassing for US and many other nations..  However, they all need to understand that whatever full proof the system could be.. there will always be some honest and humble people who will come across these private chats/discussions/negotiations and will decide to listen to their conscience.. What ever the system could be.. how many cross checks these guys put on.. beauty of Internet age is that these things will come out.. so why keep them in secret.. just be brave and honest and talk similarly in public as well..  As wise men said.. Honesty is best policy!! just do it.. and you will see how miraculously it will help you..

Cheers!!

Job Growth - Travel & Tourism

I guess US should be more than inclined to make life easier for foreign tourists to come and visit US. Tourism can have direct impact on lots of local business and hence can lead to substantial job growth across the board.

However, image of US is such that most of the people are pretty much afraid to even try for Visa application (where applicable). This was recently confirmed by one of the incidence which was reported by my friend in India. His mom teaches in very good/decent high school in Baroda and every year their school sends bunch of kids on so called Education/Entertainment tour. This time my friend's mom happen to come with them. She had applied for US visa and got multiple entry visa valid for 10 years. Very Good.. However, all the kids were given three months single entry visa. Fair.. They have high chance of coming again and may be just hang out or stay here illegally. All this Visa thing is/was fine.

All the kids visit US starting from New York, DC and then went to Florida Disney World etc.. Back to New York and then back to Delhi.. Everything fine for now.. However, entire group was asked to visit Bombay Consulate again to prove that they are back into India. All the kids and teachers have to travel to Bombay from Baroda and stand in line in morning and show themselves and their passport that they are back.. What the.. Can't State Department confirm it from Airlines who collect all the I-90s?? As per my friend it was such a waste of time for everyone.. Where as this should be automatically be updated every where in Embassy and all the state department computers from simpel fact that all the I-94s are collected while leaving USA.

When you make such idiotic demands how can you expect tourism to grow. 

There is ton of money in China/India/Middle-East/Far-Easter countries and they can come and visit USA and spend like crazy here. We just need to make it simple for them to come here and work on our image. All the money which is going to India and China thru Call center/IT and Manufacturing respectively will be back to USA. We just need to tweak our systems so we can track tourists easily and work on making their life easier. I am sure advancement in technologies can be better used for these peaceful work..

Work on image and sell Vegas, New York, DC, Niagra (not in Winters), LA and florida like places and we can potentially see such a great tourist influx that all the local business like hotels/Restaurants/shops will be over whelmed and go for expansion leading to significant job growth.. 

Hope some one in state department and / or homeland security is also thinking and working on similar plan..

Cheers - Shailendra

Why emerging economies are growing faster?

Very fundamental question. Why emerging economies are growing so fast. What is driving their growth? Is it just the fact that there is room to grow and they have cost advantage over developed world? Or there are some other reasons. What are these reasons?

I feel that other than those two obvious reasons, there are other key factors. Every emerging country has found some niche. Far east countries have manufacturing as their key base for growth. India has services like IT and call center. These things are effecting their growth coupled with their explosive population growth which MNCs from developed world are trying to tap into.. is leading additional flow of new investment. Also, all of these countries understand that there is no gain without pain. Somber example, china has kept strong control on costs by artificially keeping cost of manufacturing goods low most likely by keeping currency under control. What ever condition of infrastructure in India may be for common or poorer segment, India is continues to provide decent infrastructure to IT companies. Also, in India there is immense local consumption and imports are still expensive. Brazil.. I guess found niche in alternate fuels and tourism.. which continues to make it grow at faster rate. However, there is big risk in these economies, mostly political.. Corruption is still high and rampant but as long as it doesn't come into growth it is fine. 


Once these economies get into growth cycle and achieve decent infrastructure and local consumption, it becomes vicious circle and then leads to hyper investment from financial community which leads to these exponential growth numbers. Once they reach to certain level of basic infrastructural support, these economies could be decoupled further with developed world and can sustain more or less on their own.

What I heard on economist today is very true.... That these emerging economies will continue to do well as long as developed world is limping around. If developed world gets into recession, this vicious circle of growth breaks and leads to slower growth in these emerging economies as well. However, as long as developed world keeps limping, emerging economies will continue to grow at much faster rate. 

Any other thoughts??

TATA Nano's Dismal Sales

Heart broke when I heard that Nano sales is pretty bad. I think quality and specs are to blame to some extent. However, main reason I feel is Image and branding issue. It was more or less dubbed as Poor Man's car. Nobody wants to project poor man especially poor people. Coupled with Indian road conditions, motor bike is much more versatile and useful vehicle. Probably, customers feel more pride in high end bike Vs. low end car. Need to understand that India is still male dominated society and key decision makers are still men (mostly.. or at least we think so ;-) ).
So what could be possible solution for this problem? First of all get rid of messaging that it is cheapest car on planet.. then fix Quality issues and may be make it more secure by adding air bag etc..  then position it as middle class car with some basic good price with built-in features like CD/MP3 players, airbags etc..  as default. Also, I am assuming that they need to break myth that it is technologically very poor car.. Focus in some high tech features and make them comparable with other Korean/Japanese cars.  Keep packaging simple so people can understand what they are getting and always offer some additional features.

Make cars little flashy.. something which gives features or thrill like bike.. may be add some sporty switch which probably will sacrifice some of fuel efficiency but give some good thrill..

Sara Palin in action..

Lot of media coverage for Ms. Palin.. She is in news and is covering lot on media on different issues. Interesting to see that Media is also covering her a lot and the way things are going, unless she has any secret or if she goofs up some something major in next year.. she is on the way to get Republican nomination.. Don't know about presidency.. as of now 50/50.. 50% chance I give only for the fact that we have elected Bush twice. If common sense prevails then how can we elect some one for presidency, who only has experience of governing the state whose population is even lesser than city (it is San Jose, not counting San Francisco) where I live..

At the same time she deserves to get all the recognition and coverage. She has worked hard and chosen her bets carefully. She is coming up as strong leader from Republican/Tea Party.. Though I don't feel that there is much sense in her talks other than some good drama type of hype..

It will be interesting to see how she progresses and shows her leadership.. However, one thing is for sure.. she will be president only if Democrats continue their goof up, instead of doing something real quantifiable and measurable..

Jobs back to US!!!

What are we talking!!! Jobs back to US?? what kind of jobs we are looking to get back. Why will they should be back??

Let us think about options or rather solutions about this so called jobs back business. President Obama went on tour of Asia and we were hoping that we will be getting some jobs back from those countries.. What is the basis of this assumption that we can even get some jobs back.. May be we will sell those countries some high tech weapons and that way our US factories will keep on cranking for some more time!! what other kind of jobs we can get back? Call-center? Software Development? Manufacturing? Mining? Smoking!!

What kind of labor force we currently have what is in pipeline and what kind of work these guys are interested in.... I really like education system here.. It lets you do or study whatever you are interested in.. In colleges, you don't select major because it might result in very high paying jobs after graduation.. So as a result we mostly get excellent and really passionate students joining and coming out of colleges.. Problem I see that most of these students are focusing on non engineering / science majors.. All the science/engineering majors are being filled by foreign nationals or immigrants.. As a result, we are mostly getting very few native engineers and scientists.. However, whatever number we are getting is top notch.. one of best of best.. But still majority of students are very creative and non-engineering..


As an immigrant, I feel that US is becoming highly polarized. Divide between Rich and Poor is becoming wider and wider.. middle category jobs are going away.. either very high skilled jobs or non-skilled jobs will remain in here.. which will result in either very high paying or min wage jobs.. We all know that those non-skilled jobs are taken care by our neighboring countries.. So what is left??

So.. what are the growth areas.. I feel there can be substantial growth in "Very High Tech" for sure.. other than that, there will be very good demand for Managers (Project/Program).. also.. Financials.. We have to agree that US financial Industry can create and sell any kind of exotic products to any one.. I am sure their creativity will continue.. Another major area for growth is arts/sports, and it will remain for some more time.. Dallas Cowboys Franchise is known in all parts of world.. no one can compete our Hollywood.. We need sell these areas to rest of the world.. and sell it hard.. probably package it and sell it.. there is no dearth of talent in these areas.. We are good and our program supports these things like anything.. Sell NFL/NHL/NBA... package tours / tourists around these things..

Sell Vegas.. Those are the kind of things where no one can beat America.. I was listening today about extremely poor condition of housing market in Vegas.. I guess.. Government should spend their bail out money and start buying buildings and houses and help build Vegas back again.. May be offer these houses to anyone who moves to let us say from 1500 or more miles.. just kidding.. Start more direct flights from cash rich countries like middle east, Russia, China, India.. and you will see super growth in employment numbers.. Ask our brothers in US embassy/consulates to give tourist visas more easily.. change image that going to America is next to impossible.. may be embed device which will track these tourists till they are safely going back home..

 Bottom-line.. instead of worrying about bringing back jobs from Asia.. US should get creative and identify our core strengths and invest in them.. What is gone is gone.. don't worry about it.. invest in next wave of growth..

Myanmar (Burma) Elections

It is amazing how can we still let this happen in this time/age.. I don't understand why not India or even China simply annex Burma and get rid of their Junta (Military Rulers) and simply dismantle them.. and establish proper democratically elected government.

What is the point of becoming regional super powers. Is it just to talk.. I think this is the time that Indian government take action instead of just talking and show that they have some courage.. If they are not doing anything now. it could only mean that Junta government is bloody feeding these politicians in Delhi to just talk rather than take any actions.. Honestly, at this point I don't care if China takes some action and takes over Burma. As long as their is improvement in lives of the people of Burma I am fine with any other country taking over and getting rid of current regime.

I was looking at podcast at economist (http://audiovideo.economist.com/) today morning and it feels miserable.. They need to do some thing.. I wish Burma had good oil reserve.. may be US or some other superpower would have been more interested in it and do something real good work for humanity..

Cisco's dismal earnings forecast..

Really bad news today.. about Cisco's forecast. I hope it is temporary and localized to Cisco. I hope it is not indicator of next slowdown or what is called second dip..

This time Europe and Public Sector is to blame. I thought Public Sector especially US was growing really fast with growth in the size of government. I am really surprised to hear contrary report on this sector. What will happen if Tea Party Candidate becomes President.. If things are so bad for Cisco now, what will happen if Tea Party Candidate becomes president ;-) They are suppose to cut size of government. isn't it??

US Jobs and outsourcing

President Obama's recent visit to India has also sparked lot of issues with jobs growth in US and jobs going to India in outsourcing. India raised lot of concerns about restriction on outsourcing work from US. Both the countries are right in their approach.

US needs to understand, either local workforce needs to be competitive not just technically but also economically. Off course there is big difference in standards of living but that doesn't mean there is so much difference which can't be off-set by productivity gains locally due to let us say better infrastructure and same timezone. Definitely, US education system is very good in terms of creativity, presentation and overall development. However, for some reasons it doesn't produce enough scientists and engineers.  Most of engineers/scientists still come from immigrant population.. Most of the master's degrees in US universities are still filled by non-US students. This does creates problem for local business. They simply can't hire good enough local resources and Visa's like H1 are getting costlier and costlier day by day. So what is option. Any medium or now a days even small business are looking at outsourcing as very much viable option. Especially with the collaborative tools like WebEx/Video-Conferencing and almost free voice calling it is getting easier to offshore work. There is abundance of qualified workforce available in countries like India and China and other emerging economies. This workforce is usually very enthusiast to deliver and prove their worthwhile along with being extremely cheap as compared to local workforce.

So, question is, what will local young generation do.. I guess, one option is that local workforce should be willing to move.. They should be even willing to work outside US where they can still command premium for their incomparable communication, managerial and other abilities. Slowly, I feel local workforce will have only one of these  options, either do high tech jobs, very low paying jobs or go abroad. In-Fact during one of my trip to Mexico some time back I did met one couple who were coming back after visiting their son in Mexico. Their son was doing great and enjoying his very first job in Mexico City.. and they were also proud of him and very excited to see their son's progressing career.

Comments?

Common cold and conventional theory about Yogurt

I was searching for correlation between cold and yogurt. Found this link which kind of supports yogurt to boost your immune system to fight cold and in a way help cold. 

I have to agree that many other links were from Ayurveda and were against yogurt for cold. However, my personal belief and experiment does support theory outlined in this article. Well it could be just my body.

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000678.htm

Cheers !!

Day light savings - economic benefit vs tinkering with body clock

It was so nice to get an additional hour to sleep today. Especially as compared to, when in March or April when they take out an hour from the day. I really never liked it.

I am still not convinced that there is any economic benefit of day light saving time change. May be only for couple of months in peak summer at the most.

However, I still feel that this tinkering does mess up productivity for couple of days.

I would like to hear comments from others as well.

President Obama's India visit

It is great to see President Obama's India visit going well. I hope it will result in better business relationship which is essence and basic requirement of any other type of relationships between nations. So far it is going very well. Obama is really popular in India and actually rest of the world. I disagree with Economist correspondent that he lacks Bill Clinton's Charisma. He has different kind of magic and also he brings lot of hopes in everyone's heart. I do feel that US' respect has gone up after his election. At least lot of people think that US isn't that hypocrite. We can elect non-white as President instead of just talking about great things.

Inside US, Obama continues to suffer poor ratings mainly due to his lack of un-divided attention for job growth. However, he did great job in many other fields and can hope that he will be able to continue his work. Hope that due to business transactions with India there will be some job growth over here in US companies.

I think US needs India also to maintain balance of power due to China's growing military and economic growth in the region. India has lot of advantages and some disadvantages. India needs lot of help to fix its infrastructure. US companies have very good experience with Infrastructure development and can both India and US can gain a lot with each other.

Cheers!!!

House democrats leadership

In my view Nanci Peloci should let new democrats leaders take over house leadership. She has done her part and in recent elections her leadership failed. Whatever you say her leadership failed and she ought to take that responsibility. You can twist numbers to make them look whichever way you want and / or you can come up with thousands of excuses to keep minority leadership posts. But it only says that you are after power nothing more. If you want to contribute to Democratic party you can still do as leader. I would say that if you worry about party then you should not take any admin post any how and work hard to listen to supporters and make them heard in party leadership.

Happy Diwali!!!

Happy Diwali to every one!!! Hope this year brings lot of fun and prosperity to everyone's life.

We had excellent Diwali party yesterday and now gearing up for bigger block part on Sunday. It makes lot of difference if these Indian festival falls on weekend. Makes lot of difference in celebration spirit!!!

Cheers !!!!

Mid Term Elections - Economy

Generally they say stalemate in DC is good for economy. However, this time they are saying it will be opposite as many critical items are waiting for decision from Congress. I still think that even this stalemate will be good for economy. Any new law by congress is going to only create issues for business. Congress can't do more stupid stimulus bills. Onus will be on Fed bank. They are economist with only agenda to stimulate economy. That is all we need at this time.


In California, hopefully Jerry Brown will think this as his last political assignment and try to fix broken system in hope of so called lasting legacy. My hope is that he will think rationally and take decisions which are in best interest of Californians rather than a particular union or small group.