New Quarter of New year!!

Wao.. it is already end of March (for many of my friends in India and east of California it is already April).. Time is flying fast and I thought it is good time to review and adjust (mostly :-) ) my new year resolutions..
Check and review my compliance to them and see where I am.. So far my current review is giving real bad scorecard. I think I either I need to revise my targets downwards or really step up efforts to come up to speed to catch with them. I am behind target on many of my resolutions.. I think I need both things to catch up on them.. I will keep everyone posted by end of next quarter.. On positive note, it is first time that I was able to think about my resolutions by March end.. otherwise I used to forget them mostly by February.. Let us hope that my memory will help me remember them for rest of the year!!

Cheers!!

At Google, Page Aims to Clear Red Tape

Interesting article in WSJ about Google's founder Mr. Page taking over and trying to instill his old style back in company. Remember he was original Google CEO till 2001 before Mr. Schmidt took over.

I strongly believe that founders should leave company to professionals and take up non-management roles in company (at the most). I have watched couple of companies closely, where founders continued role at top management and after initial phenomenal success but then became bottleneck for companies growth. There are very few Steve Jobs or Larry Ellison type of founders or CEOs. But wait.. in case of Steve Jobs, he was also kicked out of company and honestly he was more successful on his second stint. Any how that is not main reason for this note..

I was wondering about these changes. Especially in a big company like Google. Basically, what Mr. Page is trying to do is to replicate another success similar to what they had done in early 2000. That early success still accounts for 95% of google's revenue till date. At the same time Google as a company has tons of load of bureaucratic machinery around it. Which is nothing more but a legacy of Professional CEO (no offense to Mr. Schmidt) trying to build execution machinery. However, most of the time as companies grow, this results in higher baggage then the real productive hands. Even though Google is famous for its creative and very intelligent workforce but we are yet to see any significant breakthrough in product line-up..

Does that mean if we get rid of all this machinery build-up (I am assuming it will be easily 80% of total Google workforce), will we be still able to maintain revenue level in core search business? Unfortunately or fortunately.. answer is yes.. We will still be able to see same revenue base with almost same growth pattern if we get rid of all non-search based groups. So why not do it.. Answer I think lies in Google stock price, which is mainly driven by hopes of future growth. It is in $600 USD range not just for growth in search.. but hoping that there will be some other magical blockbuster product which will further double Google's revenue overnight.. Also, we need to understand that Google's employee cost is still insignificant as compared to total revenue. So they have lot more buffer to blow up before they should worry about this extra baggage.

Now, what Mr. Page is trying to do is to reverse the ever increasing trend of cost structure without any significant upside or benefit. Lot of time when companies become big and bureaucratic they have hundreds or thousands of projects which shows dreams about billions of dollars of revenue on paper but in reality they will be lucky to touch million dollar mark. Along-with bigger machinery and structure lot of these projects and their owners can hide and do something or other... not necessary really useful. It will be really interesting to see if Mr. Page can weed out these dumb projects or cultivate couple of real good winners from them.. In general I like his style so far though it is too early to say anything. Though it is literally impossible to these things single handedly, I am sure Mr. Page will be able to clear some dust for sure.

Even though Google has plethora of other successful products, revenue base is still basic Search and Adsense model. Sooner or later, other search engines will close up the gap and their cash cow will get weaker and weaker. So Mr. Page doesn't have any option but to create some other blockbuster product which is not only good for users but also for Google in terms of revenue. Off-course, with the amount of cash Google has, they can fire all the engines and try multiple projects to replicate original success along with buying some other good startups with real cool ideas..

What I have seen so far, bigger companies it is hard to build something really useful so I am more inclined to spend money on buying some good small companies where idea or process is good and you can leverage your big machinery to scale it to universe. Having said that, I would think that Mr. Page shouldn't get obsessed by internal projects and operations. He should try to cultivate them, as it is good for great companies.. but  shouldn't get obsessed with it.. There is limit to what a big company can do in creativity and new things... Ideally they should hire some good COO who can take care of operations and day to day management, and these visionaries should continue on vision and directions of companies.. more importantly on some good acquisitions which can be aligned and enhance their core business model and process.

Other interesting way to do this could be to cultivate fork-out and merge culture. In bigger companies like Google if some of the mid/senior management is so sure about their idea or project and the revenue numbers, then give them seed money and ask them to start their own company. This group of employees should get shoe-string budget and incubation time of a year or two max. If they are successful then companies should buy them back at hefty premium (still a peanut for companies like Google).  If they can't live up-to their promised numbers then they should be allowed to be taken care by market forces. Essentially cultivate real "High Risk High Reward" culture and eliminate complacencies due to fat and guaranteed minimum salaries. In other words give real responsibility and ownership.

Finally, here is the original article from WSJ:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703784004576220902706041400.html

Is end of Mobile Competition in US near?

If AT&T and T-Mobile's merger goes through, I think it will be catastrophic for Cell consumers in US. What ever the reason may be, as of now US consumers pay one of the highest charges for what may be at the best called shabby service in Cellphone market. I think, after this merger it will be even worse. I remember, when AT&T had purchased, SBC's cell phone business and promises were made about improved and great service as a result of that merger. Yeah.. we did got iPhone on AT&T.. and I think that was it it.. In the name of improved service we only got more dropped calls and continued to get poor reception and same higher rates or even higher...

I don't know.. In case, Obama administration's FTC/FCC allows this merger.. I am going to hate this administration forever. I believe, it won't be just me, there will be millions of AT&T's subscriber who will hate it.. Not that T-Mobile's service is any great, but as long as there are two players in GSM mobile area, there was hope that things may be better. IF, this merger goes through.. nobody will have any hopes of better cellphone service ever in US..

I hope administration will see how past mergers in this area has resulted in so called better pricing for consumers and will decide accordingly.

Is it too little and too late?

Glad to see some action by international community (aka US, France, Britain & Arab League) on Gaddafi Inc. Honestly, same action would have dramatic impact if our Dear Mrs. Clinton would have worked harder on getting coalition sooner. However, I am happy to see some action, for which I had lost all hopes after Japanese Earthquake/Sunami tragedy. I am happy to see some support, even though it is too little and too late and if it was taken earlier, it would have save lot of lives. but... never mind..

At the same time, I was ashamed to see India abstaining from voting for resolution on Libya. It just shows how much guts we have to face truth and do what is right and then we want permanent position on UN Security council. Shame on Indian government and diplomats. This totally exposes them. They need to accept the fact that world order is changing and there can't be neutral postion. You have to on the side of truth and people. You simply can't sit in a corner. If Gaddafi Inc. was that great friend then you are better off opposing resolution. But then you don't have guts to do that. As an Indian, my head goes down when these type of incidences happen.. We simply can't keep on supporting Dictatorships like Gaddafi Inc. and Myanmar Junta and such.. Come in open and support "Satyamev Jayate" which is more of symbolic icon of Indian government rather than anybody really following or understanding it. Hiding or running away from truth is only going to prolong these kind messes we are in. We need to understand that People are friends not rulers.. Rulers come and go but your image and reputation stays as a true friend with People. It doesn't make any difference, if you get couple of billion dollars worth oil services contracts or get lot of your gas/LNG (in case of Myanmar). You need to support truth and only truth.. truth is never easy to follow but rewards are equally greater if you follow path of truth and base your friendships and relationships on truth..

I hope people's revolution wil continue to spread and continue to become mature. Governments as a whole will become better and thus this whole world!!!

Entire World's inaction in Libya

Finally some action by Arab League.
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/12/libya.civil.war/

Based on the reports from Libya, at this point this seems to be totally inadequate action. Damage is already done to most Of the rebel forces. Now ground offensive by Gaddafi's militia is going on to wipe them out. At this time it should have been complete warning to Gaddafi Inc to leave country immediately. But then 90% of Arab leaders have their own autocracy at stake. They simply can't let one of their brethren go off so easily.

However, they are better than US, who could have done a lot more, much more earlier at much lower cost to Libyans and even their own forces. That was total failure of Hilary Clinton and ultimately one of the biggest failure of Obama's presidency. They need to understand one simple fact of diplomacy. You want people to be your friend not just regimes. If people are friend, regimes will be ultimately your friend. American Diplomacy needs to change their policy and instead of playing politics they need to follow fundamental facts and abide by them.
Unfortunately, now with Japan's earthquake and Sunami disaster libyAn people and it's uprising will fade away from rest of the World's memory. Good example was the news of police firing directly on civilians. Everyone will take advantage of this situation in. Middle east and try to suppress people's revolution for the time being.

How Germany became China of Europe

A very interesting article in Times Magazine. Though I honestly don't like comparison with China. China's manufacturing capability is mostly based on cheap labor and poor working conditions. I am assuming that this is not the case with German workers who are much better paid off and work not just for making money but also for passion of making something really great.  Also, Chinese goods are for lower segment. Where as Germans target for high end premium quality products.

Even though, everywhere in US we see made in China or other countries, but the fact is that US is still world's biggest manufacturer in terms of dollar value. Still, 75% of all goods consumed in US are manufactured in US. Though most of the time, these goods are of extremely high value and are produced in highly automated manufacturing plants very much unlike China.

Despite all of the above it is very interesting article and must read. Though, later part of this article deals more on rest of the Europe's frustration with German manufacturing machinery. Which is more of simple envy as of now. However, rest of the Europe also knows it very well that it is their own actions and inactions which have led them to this state. Five years back when Germany was making very anemic growth rate of 2-3 percent and rest of the Europe was riding on Financial and Mortgage based boom, they were making fun of Germans for being old fashioned and traditional who don't understand new economy (or then new economy, of circulating money like ponzi schemes and feeling great about it).

Now, bottom line is, can US learn something out of it and fix state of economy by fixing passion and art of manufacturing with human touch. Definitely, there is lot to learn. I very strongly feel that Americans by their blood are very creative and can create wonders if they work on this field back. I think government needs to understand that and accept that it was gross mistake to encourage outsourcing in manufacturing base. They need to work hard to bootstrap manufacturing economy again. Provide right kind of tools and encourage manufacturing. They can think of creating some Special zones to encourage manufacturing back in US. I think there are enough experts to advise US on how and what to do, once they decide that they want to do it.

I think this is more than enough long.. Here is the link to original article.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2053595,00.html

Why US should double it's Education Budget

Everyone in US needs to understand that if after fifty or even twenty years from now, they want to see US still as developed country they need to focus on one thing.. Education.. Do whatever it takes to do but fix education system. Reform it or just throw all the money on it but make sure that there is great education available to all of the kids from K-12 to College level. Innovation and Intellectual Property is going to be key to progress of every nation. If US can't keep it up with rest of the emerging economies on this area, then they should be ready to accept that very soon they will also become emerging economy.

I was thinking about impact of transformational technologies on jobs profiles.. I thought, I will list down some broad transformational technological changes are having on our daily lives and in turn what is happening to job market due to them.. Some of them are listed here:

1) Netflix/Apple-iTunes on Video Rental shops like Blockbuster/Hollywood
2) Amazon kind of online sales on  general Retail
3) Facebook on general social gathering
4) Google Search on Call Center or say Directory Services
5) Cisco Telepresence on Travel
6) Smart Meters on PG&E Meter Readers

Except for few of the above like Facebook, which actually facilitates meeting of friends and relatives more often and thus increasing service requirements and thus jobs.. rest all categories, ultimately result in net job loss. Essentially most of the technological revolutions are based on one sound principle.. they simply want to increase productivity and remove middle-man and thus cut costs.

Now, all of the categories, do create jobs and cut jobs somewhere. Let us take a look at who is winner and who is looser. Most of the jobs lost are in retail and service sector. Most of the job gains are in programming, architecture.. basically high-mid end technological jobs. What kind of profile these jobs are related to? Education!! Education!! that is what matters most. With latest growth in bio-tech side, even undergraduate degree is not enough..

Unless, US does to bring passion for science and Maths among students, they can't imagine themselves being super power any more.. It is some more borrowed time we will be relatively developing economy or emerging economy as we talk about many other nations....




Netflix Vs Hollywood/Blockbuster

Why is UN not acting fast in Libya

Some things are beyond my comprehension. Why is international community so dilly - dally on acting in Libya. May be Gaddafi never tried to assassinate any western leader or may be Libya doesn't have Oil like in Iraq or what?

Poor Libyans. No wonder due to these policies, there is so much Islamic fundamentalism in middle east. You can't be with Regime. You have to think about people first. You help them when they need your help most, you will get lifelong friend. This is very basic tenant of friendship and should be also for our foreign policy.

Act fast and support whatever way you could. Fine, you don't want to send your foot soldiers but you can deploy your air-warfare machinery and can help remotely and help real people...

If we don't want to loose complete middle-east as our friend, we need to act and act now..